Why Trump Wins

S N Venkat is senior associate director, Office of Postgraduate Professional Programme, Singapore Management University

At the end of the first set of United States presidential primaries, and as Super Tuesday — the biggest primary election — starts today, it is becoming clear there is a real possibility that billionaire Donald Trump may be the Republican presidential candidate this year.

While it might have taken many political pundits by surprise, there were some, like the creator of the famous Dilbert comic strip, American cartoonist Scott Adams, who warned in 2015 that there was a method to Mr Trump’s apparent madness and that it came from the art of persuasion.

There are scholarly attempts to explain them, based on well-known books on the subject such as Mr Robert Cialdini’s Influence — The Psychology of Persuasion, but what explains Mr Trump’s method is one simple sentence.

Mr Blair Warren, author of the e-book The One Sentence Persuasion Course — 27 Words To Make The World Do Your Bidding, said: “People will do anything for those who encourage their dreams, justify their failures, allay their fears, confirm their suspicions and help them throw rocks at their enemies.” That’s it. There you have Mr Trump’s campaign strategy template, summarised in one sentence.

Let’s see what Mr Trump’s target audience’s dreams, failures, fears, suspicions are, who their “enemies” are, and map what he has said and done so far against these five components of persuasion.

1. ENCOURAGE THEIR DREAMS

The American dream, for the majority, was getting well-paying jobs even with a high school education, in factories or in other services, raising a family and living a comfortable life, even in small-town America.

Globalisation has shifted manufacturing jobs from America to China and Mexico, and many service and support jobs to India, the Philippines and elsewhere. A Reuters report said that, in the US state of Mississippi alone, “more than 75,000 manufacturing jobs have disappeared in the past 15 years”, and in the comparable period the “median household income fell nearly 12 per cent”.

For the past couple of decades, the US government, economists and other experts have asked Americans to accept the present situation as the new normal. Mr Trump came along and stoked their dream and a longing for a glorious past. “We’re going to make America great again,” he thundered in his speeches across America, without giving any specifics.

2. JUSTIFY THEIR FAILURES

Mr Warren said that “assuring others they are not responsible (for their lot in life) is essential for gaining influence over theirs”.

So, Mr Trump blamed it on the government as well as the politicians in general. In an interview on the ABC channel, Mr Trump said, “people are sick and tired of stupid and incompetent people leading our nation”.

He blamed the US government for not negotiating the trade deals well, and for not imposing tariffs on Chinese and Mexican imports into the US. “The problem with free trade is you need smart negotiators on your side. When you have stupid people like we do, free trade’s no good.” He has not told people that they have to be better trained in STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) subjects in a knowledge economy.

3. ALLAY THEIR FEARS

Master persuaders, according to Mr Warren, pay special attention to their audience’s fears. “They offer support. They tell us stories,” he said. Mr Trump’s presidential announcement speech in June 2015 had that offer of support for American fears about illegal immigration. It had the comforting metaphor of a wall and a story to go with. “I would build a great wall, and nobody builds walls better than me, believe me, and I’ll build them very inexpensively. I will build a great, great wall on our southern border. And I will have Mexico pay for that wall. Mark my words,” Mr Trump assured Americans then.

4. CONFIRM THEIR SUSPICIONS

“It is a simple thing to confirm the suspicions of those who are desperate to believe them,” said Mr Warren. Starting with his presidential announcement speech, Mr Trump had been confirming the suspicions of his audience about what and who caused their troubles.

His audience suspected free trade, immigrants and religious minorities who were different from them. He simply confirmed them. Here’s what he said:

On Mexico and Mexicans: “They are not our friends, believe me. But they’re killing us economically ... They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists.”

On trade: “Free trade is terrible ... China is killing us.”

5. HELP THEM THROW ROCKS AT THEIR ENEMIES

When reading Mr Trump’s speeches about Muslims in America to his predominantly Christian audiences, I recall what Mr Warren said: “Nothing bonds like having a common enemy. The thing they are struggling with is their enemy. Whether it is another individual, a group, an illness, a setback, a rival philosophy or religion, or what have you.”

Soon after the attack in Paris in November last year, Mr Trump raised a bogeyman.

He said he was all for a database tracking Muslims in the country and a month later called for a “total and complete shutdown on Muslims entering the United States”.

There have been far-right candidates before in Republican presidential primaries, such as talk show host Pat Buchanan and former Congresswoman Michele Bachmann. But they all fell by the wayside and more moderate nominees emerged.

Will there be, for the first time, a US presidential candidate who has played on the masses’ fears and suspicions, and directed their anger towards the country’s neighbours, trade partners and followers of one of the largest religions in the world?

If Mr Trump wins in November this year, how will he deal with Mexico, China, the Middle East and the rest of the Islamic world — in fact, the rest of the world?

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

S N Venkat is senior associate director, Office of Postgraduate Professional Programme, Singapore Management University. The opinions expressed here are personal and do not reflect those of his employers.