Avoiding Gambler's Fallacy in Your Business

How people think: if you have been having 3 boys in a row, you will think that your chance of a girl the next round will be high. Truth is that the gender of your next child has nothing to do with the gender of the previous child. This is because each sex has an equal probability independent of the last one. The failure to recognize this is called 'Gambler's Fallacy', which reflects how people make mistake in their decisions by mistaking that the past will predict the future.

Anyone that try to foretell your fortune for 2014 will end up being wrong most of the time, simply because they base their prediction on the past. We all know the failures of companies like HTC, Nokia and Blackberry: they produce their products based on past demand and end up with excessive stocks.

The truth is that everything that happen today is made up of many factors happening not just now, but in the past. There is no one single factor that we can attribute to any success of failure. Like we know Apple's iPad Air sells well not because it is thin, but because of the lack of competing products and other factors including its price and the fast A7 processor.

In the book "Why Smart People Make Big Money Mistakes" by Thomas Gilovich, the following 5 points are worth your reading:

Look always at the long term trends, not short term trends as they are volatile and may not repeat itself.
Play averages because chance plays a great role in the short term, but in the long term, things will average out. Like a company that has good products with strong R & D will win over another company with strong marketing but weak products.
Always read the fine print, because what the large print gives, the small print takes away. Do not take risk by ignoring the fine details.
Know your odds. The odds of winning the lottery or Singapore Sweep is much lower than being stuck by lighting or having a crash in a aeroplane. In business, your odds of success is higher than your odds of failure if you focus on what you know.
People pay more attention to big numbers than they do to small numbers. So to make a product appear more affordable, present it in small numbers, like cost per day.

In short, be aware of the Gambler's Fallacy that things will remain the same today base on yesterday's situation. Your situation today is base on long term trend, so you need to start working today to build a better trend tomorrow. Do not depend on luck because the odds are against you!

By Andy Ng, Chief Trainer at Asia Trainers. Successful companies know that the better trained your people are, the higher is your company's chance of success. But you cannot just do training today and expect success tomorrow. Start training today and over time, your company's competencies will strengthen and your chance of success will be higher.

If Not You, Who Else?

I learnt this very powerful 5-word phrase from Singapore's highest ever box-office movie ever: "Ah Boys to Men II". In one scene, the recruits were about to start their 3-day field camp. Their Officer-in-Command asked them, "Before we moved out, anybody not feeling well?" All the soldiers replied loudly, "No Sir!!!" "Gentlemen", continued the Officer, "Every time the training gets tougher, one thought comes to your mind, 'Why Must I Serve National Service?' "My answer to you is, 'If Not You, Then Who Else?'" Wow! What a powerful phrase! If Not You, Who Else may mean: You are the most suitable person, and we can't find anyone better than you. This is appreciation at the highest level How can you push this responsibility to someone else? I am making a request to you specifically, please don't reject my request Can you find me another person more suitable than you? Please refer me anot

Kindness as a Way of Life: How Kindness can Reward You 6 Times Over

Kindness as a Way of Life by Andy Ng Kindness is a universal language that transcends cultural boundaries, enriches human connections, and has the power to transform lives. It goes beyond mere acts of charity or random good deeds. To me, kindness, when practiced as a way of life, becomes a profound philosophy that can shape our interactions with others, the world around us, and even our own well-being. In this article, we will explore the multifaceted aspects of kindness as a way of life, touching on non-violent communication, the limitations of traditional charity, the potential harms of helping, the deliberate cultivation of kindness, and the incredible rewards it brings. 1. Non-Violent Communication Non-violent communication (NVC) is a key component of practicing kindness as a way of life. Developed by Marshall B. Rosenberg, NVC emphasizes empathetic communication that seeks to understand and connect with others on a deeper level. It encourages active listening, empath

New Age Mobile Numerology

Many people look at 'mobile number change luck' with skepticism, they say, how can just one simple mobile number change create so many changes in a person's life? Also, the mobile numbers are given to us by random by the telcos, how can our fate be assigned by the telcos at random? Besides, isn't it true that our lives and fates are determined by birth and what we do, how can a small mobile number, which is a modern invention, have any effect? How about people in the past without mobile numbers? You mean they don't have a life without mobile numbers, right? One more thing: you cannot just change your mobile number and expect your life to change. If this is so, wouldn't everybody be rich just by changing their mobile numbers? Finally, isn't this kind of fortune-telling thing more of psychology and blind faith than science? If so, how can we trust anything that is not proven and not science? Today let's resolve all these doubts and I welcome your co

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