How Low will the Stock Markets Go?

(Written on 21 March 2020)

Straits Times Index:

Current 20 March 2020: 2,410

2007 high: 3,805
1998 low: 1,084
2003 low: 1,203

Imagine if STI drops by 40% from its high of 3,805, it will be 2,283. If it drops to in between 1998 low of 1,084 and 2003 low of 1,203, it will be 1,143. This level is 70% below 2007 high of 3,805. As this is highly unlikely, a more reasonable drop will be 50% from 3,805 high. This is because the STI component stocks today are of much higher quality than the low of 1998 of 1,084 so unlikely there is an all-out market crash.

Also understand that today's stock market crash is not caused by financial, economic or war crisis but a pandemic health crisis. Also, this pandemic health crisis is very weather-driven, once the weather turns hot, it will not be pandemic. Also, vaccines are being developed, and one could be available as early as May 2020. Note that the financial markets today, including the banks and companies, are much stronger than in 1998. So it is highly unlikely that we can go back to 1998 low, which was caused by the Asian Financial Crisis.

Prediction: STI will likely drop to 1,902

The current level of 2,410 is already a 36% drop from its high of 3,805.

At the current level of 2,410, there is another risk of 500 points or 20%.
That means all stocks may have a 20% drop risk.

What do you think? Share me your thoughts

Comments

Kindness as a Way of Life: How Kindness can Reward You 6 Times Over

Kindness as a Way of Life by Andy Ng Kindness is a universal language that transcends cultural boundaries, enriches human connections, and has the power to transform lives. It goes beyond mere acts of charity or random good deeds. To me, kindness, when practiced as a way of life, becomes a profound philosophy that can shape our interactions with others, the world around us, and even our own well-being. In this article, we will explore the multifaceted aspects of kindness as a way of life, touching on non-violent communication, the limitations of traditional charity, the potential harms of helping, the deliberate cultivation of kindness, and the incredible rewards it brings. 1. Non-Violent Communication Non-violent communication (NVC) is a key component of practicing kindness as a way of life. Developed by Marshall B. Rosenberg, NVC emphasizes empathetic communication that seeks to understand and connect with others on a deeper level. It encourages active listening, empath

New Age Mobile Numerology

Many people look at 'mobile number change luck' with skepticism, they say, how can just one simple mobile number change create so many changes in a person's life? Also, the mobile numbers are given to us by random by the telcos, how can our fate be assigned by the telcos at random? Besides, isn't it true that our lives and fates are determined by birth and what we do, how can a small mobile number, which is a modern invention, have any effect? How about people in the past without mobile numbers? You mean they don't have a life without mobile numbers, right? One more thing: you cannot just change your mobile number and expect your life to change. If this is so, wouldn't everybody be rich just by changing their mobile numbers? Finally, isn't this kind of fortune-telling thing more of psychology and blind faith than science? If so, how can we trust anything that is not proven and not science? Today let's resolve all these doubts and I welcome your co

If Not You, Who Else?

I learnt this very powerful 5-word phrase from Singapore's highest ever box-office movie ever: "Ah Boys to Men II". In one scene, the recruits were about to start their 3-day field camp. Their Officer-in-Command asked them, "Before we moved out, anybody not feeling well?" All the soldiers replied loudly, "No Sir!!!" "Gentlemen", continued the Officer, "Every time the training gets tougher, one thought comes to your mind, 'Why Must I Serve National Service?' "My answer to you is, 'If Not You, Then Who Else?'" Wow! What a powerful phrase! If Not You, Who Else may mean: You are the most suitable person, and we can't find anyone better than you. This is appreciation at the highest level How can you push this responsibility to someone else? I am making a request to you specifically, please don't reject my request Can you find me another person more suitable than you? Please refer me anot

Business and Money Tips

Search This Blog